Our Schools - Declining Enrolment
2009-12-04 |
There is one glaring statistic that is going to have a dramatic effect on our educational system; our health care system; our Island economy; and our society in general – and that is the declining enrolment in our Province’s school system, which of course is systemic of a declining birth rate.
The statistics are startling and it is a demographic change that our governments, businesses, and policy makers should carefully analyze and prepare for.
In the 1999/2000 academic year, there was 11,796 PEI children enrolled in the elementary education system (K-6). By 2007/2008, this number declined to 9,167 – a drop of 22%. Similar declines are taking place in all four Atlantic Canadian provinces.
The enrolment at Atlantic Canadian universities is dropping each year by 2 – 2 1/2% per year (fortunately UPEI because of strong management, course expansions, and international marketing has actually seen an increase). However, you can only defy gravity for so long.
A child who is not there in Grade 6 is not going to be there in Grade 12 – six year’s time.
I don’t believe that we as a society are planning for this demographic shift. We spent all last winter arguing over the closure of several small schools. If these trends continue (and there is nothing to suggest they will not), the future decisions will have to be far more significant.
Attracting and retaining immigrants is one area that we can improve upon, but again, this is not the total answer.
The bottom line in this discussion is that we are going to see declines in the percentage of people under 30 years of age, and everyone is going to ask themselves how that affects them, their occupations, their businesses, future health care costs; their families, and society in general.
